When news broke about the now-completed trade between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Boston Celtics (with New Orleans being added later), Basketball Twitter lit up with Memphis Twitter out in front with plenty to say. While everyone had his or her own opinion on whether or not it was a smart trade, the analogies being thrown around seemed to center on a game of another sort: poker.
It’s a handy, familiar metaphor for trades or free agent signings. The notion of “going all-in” is easy for people to understand, even if the only thing they know about poker is when Bill Simmons references “Rounders” for the 817th time. So, when Peter Edmiston made the following two poker analogies, I nodded my head in agreement.
All I’m saying is, if you’re going to push your chips all-in, you need to make sure you’ve got a winning hand. Not sure Green is that hand.
— Peter Edmiston (@peteredmiston) January 10, 2015
@AndrewFord22 I think the poker analogy is apt. Griz are going all in with three of a kind. Good hand, but no guarantee. Tough call. — Peter Edmiston (@peteredmiston) January 10, 2015
Three of a kind. That’s exactly what Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, and Zach Randolph are. The three of them work together in a way that is reminiscent of the Spurs’ Big Three, a seamless, cohesive unit that knows where the other two will be without having to offer up even a glance in their direction.
We talk about the “Core Four” of that trio plus Tony Allen, but TA is more of a wild card than a match for his teammates. “Trick or Treat” Tony has earned his reputation for being a Tasmanian devil who disrupts opponents on the defensive end while being a study in absurdity from time to time on offense. Still, three of a kind is a good hand. Very good, in fact. However, it can be beaten by less than the best hand possible.
That notion of three of a kind got me to thinking: if that’s what the Grizzlies are, then what is the rest of the ridiculously competitive Western Conference?
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder were the easiest to identify. They’re the consummate pair of Pocket Aces. With Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook healthy, they’re the best hand you can hope for pre-flop in No Limit Hold’em. Throw in Serge Ibaka (worthy of at least a Jack designation, if not a Queen) and two wild cards in Reggie Jackson and Dion Waiters, and they are dangerous enough to be a threat to anyone. If Jackson or Waiters steps up to consistently match Ibaka’s production as a legitimate stretch-4, they could turn those pocket aces into aces and jacks. If both of them realize their potential, they’d be a full house — one of the best hands possible.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs haven’t been healthy, but we’ve seen what they are capable of when at full strength. They aren’t hoping for an addition of any kind other than their own guys. The Spurs are effectively a straight on the flop. Their players line up perfectly, a finely tuned machine that can pick apart any team set before them. A healthy Spurs squad matches up with any team out there…
Golden State Warriors
…except for maybe the Warriors. With the improvement of Harrison Barnes, the emergence of Draymond Green, and the breakout of Klay Thompson, this team is synchronized poetry in motion. Throw in the most dangerous shooter in the league in Steph Curry, and that makes them a flush in my book. They are inching closer to being a straight flush as they continue to thrive on both sides of the ball. (Side note: While the Grizzlies usually match up well with them, regardless of whether or not Bogut is healthy, I don’t see anyone beating the Dubs in a 7-game series at their current level of play.)
Portland Trailblazers
Even before the Grizzlies completed the trade for Jeff Green, the rumblings were out there about Rip City trying to pry Wilson Chandler away from the Denver Nuggets. The Blazers have two great players who complement one another in Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. Having those two is akin to having a suited King and Queen as your hole cards. However, Robin Lopez was a solid paint presence prior to his injury, and Wesley Matthews is capable of filling up the box score on any given night. Right now, they are an open-ended straight on the flop. They have four of the cards they need and just need one more to make things work. Chandler might be that guy that could put them over teams like Memphis and San Antonio and into Golden State’s neighborhood.
Dallas Mavericks
The team that started the trade market a-buzzing with the move to acquire Rajon Rondo seems to have figured out how to play with their new toy despite a couple of two-game losing streaks that bookend a six-game winning streak after his acquisition. Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis have been stellar while Chandler Parsons has acquitted himself well with his new team. Tyson Chandler looks like the DPOY of old, averaging a double-double this season. They’re still struggling to beat the best teams, as evidenced by their 1-8 record against teams currently in the Western Conference playoff picture. Having shipped out Brandan Wright and Jae Crowder, they’re lacking a scoring punch off of the bench, leaving a noticeable hole. Therefore, I see them as drawing to an inside straight after the turn. They’re waiting on the river and hoping that it comes up with the one out that will save them.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets were the hardest team for me to peg. They have James Harden, who is playing at an MVP level this year. Dwight Howard has been solid, even as he struggles to overcome a knee injury that has hobbled him. However, they’ve largely had to do it alone as Trevor Ariza’s perimeter shot has been suspect and newly acquired forward Josh Smith has been the definition of inconsistent. They have been the equivalent of Pocket Kings with rags on the flop, able to overcome several teams based on their talent, but still looking for help to best good hands/teams.
Los Angeles Clippers
I know, I know — y’all want me to make a bunch of jokes about flopping here. I’d love to, but the fact is, the Clips are nothing more than an off-suit Ace/King as hole cards in Blake Griffin and Chris Paul. DeAndre Jordan might be a Jack and J.J. Redick has been consistently solid, but even with that, the rest of their players don’t come close to making them a straight right now. Jamal Crawford has been inconsistent as their 6th man, and their SF position is just a gaping hole of ineffectiveness this year. As it stands, they’re a hand that looks good on the flop, but never gets the card they need to bring it all together.
New Orleans Pelicans
Anthony Davis is an Ace. That much is apparent to anyone who has bothered to watch more than two minutes of the Pelicans this season. Unfortunately for him, the rest of his team is a couple of Jacks (Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holliday), a 10 (Ryan Anderson), and whatever Eric Gordon is at this point. Omer Asik is solid, but he doesn’t really fit next to The Brow most nights. Perhaps newly re-acquired Quincy Pondexter can kickstart them back into the playoff conversation, but as it stands, they’re mired around .500 and looking at the very real likelihood of another trip to the lottery.
Phoenix Suns
The team currently in the 8th slot of the playoff picture just made a move to hang on to that position by trading for Brandan Wright. Adding him to Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, Markieff Morris, Gerald Green, and the emerging Alex Len should help the Suns maintain its 2.5 game lead on the Thunder for a while longer. However, at best, Phoenix appears to be topping out at two pair. The three point guard look is unique and even effective more often than not throughout the regular season, but the teams at the top of the conference have the personnel to shut it down in the postseason. It’s reminiscent of the Grizzlies’ ten-man rotation under Hubie Brown in that regard.
While Denver and Sacramento are still mathematically potential playoff teams, Denver appears to be restructuring its roster, while Sacramento has been floundering since DeMarcus Cousins’ injury and the subsequent firing of Mike Malone. The rest of the West is left to jockeying for lottery position at this point.
To make this a little simpler, how about a power rankings of sorts for these teams?
- Golden State Warriors
- San Antonio Spurs (healthy)
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Portland Trailblazers
- Dallas Mavericks
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Houston Rockets
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Phoenix Suns
- New Orleans Pelicans
- Sacramento Kings
- Utah Jazz
- Denver Nuggets
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Los Angeles Lakers
The Warriors are the clear-cut #1 with a healthy Spurs team not far behind them. Teams 3-5 are a half-step behind those two and could be ranked in any order without much argument from me. OKC is a cut above the Rockets and Clippers, both of whom I have relatively even. The Suns have an edge over the Pellies. The T’Wolves get the nod over the Lakers based on the future more so than what their expected record will be this season.
Thoughts, opinions, arguments? Drop them in the comments or hit me up on twitter @3SOB.
