Enemy: Oklahoma City Thunder
3SOB Prediction: 57-25
Photo: USA Today Sports
What’s the story in OKC?
As one of only three teams that the Grizzlies are apparently allowed to face in the playoffs, I’m presumably obligated to carry a year-round grudge towards the Oklahoma City Thunder and everything they stand for. That’s how the rule goes, right?
Don’t you just want to puff out your chest and sing the thunder song from Ted, whenever you think about these guys? (The language of which is super-NSFW, so I’ll fight the urge to link or embed here)
For whatever reason, though, the incomparable disdain that I harvest towards this team during the isolated periods in which they and the Grizz face off always manages to dissipate into a layer of respect when the games are all said and done. My esteem for the Thunder is not to be mistaken for true positive affect, but rather an appreciation for just how good this Grizzlies team is for having pushed them 7 games in the first round of the playoffs.
I’ve already resigned myself to the fact that one of these days Kevin Durant is going to be holding up that Larry O’Brien trophy, and that there’s nothing I can do but accept it and be (relatively) happy for the guy when the time comes. I’m far from the lone subscriber to this notion, as the newest incarnation of the wildly popular NBA 2k series (set to drop in October), has dubbed its thematic mantra “Your time has come,” in reference to its cover athlete, none other than Durant.
With Lebron just settling into his new/old digs in Cleveland, now may be Durant and the Thunder’s best chance to lay claim to the NBA throne. However, enduring the Western Conference, as we know all too well, is no small task. Despite possessing the inarguable best individual player in the conference, the Thunder have been able to navigate the waters of the West to a Finals berth just once — in 2012, when they were dropped by Miami in quick five-game fashion.
A few leading factors have contributed to their inability to return to the promised land, including some within their control and others not so much.
- Terrible postseason luck: Russell Westbrook’s knee injury in 2013 and Serge Ibaka’s calf this spring
- The West – especially in San Antonio (and Memphis
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) - has gotten a thousand times better - Inability to effectively compensate for the departure of James Harden
) - has gotten a thousand times betterWestbrook’s injury is looked to as the primary culprit (*cough* excuse *cough*) for OKC’s 2013 demise at the hands of our Grizzlies, while Ibaka’s rivetingly improbable return in the recent Conference Finals run instantaneously reversed their fortunes against San Antonio, but the magic wore off at midnight, and they couldn’t sustain the momentum to help them steal the series.
While numbers one and two on that list can be chalked up to “tough luck,” the the third one falls square on their own shoulders. While I, as a fan of a small market team, do empathize with the plight of falling victim to NBA economics, it’s hard to feel bad for Oklahoma City losing out on one of the most offensively efficient players in the league due to financial concerns while they’re raking in profits hand over fist. Revisiting the deal that sent Harden to his new gig in Houston, the Thunder brought in Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, and two first-round picks — one of which became Steven Adams in 2013, and the other Mitch McGary this summer.
Martin was dope for the better portion of the season which they had him on the roster, but when push came to shove, he couldn’t shoulder the load when Westbrook went down in the playoffs the way that Harden could have. Lamb was a nice piece in theory, but has yet to pan out in the way that management had envisioned. Adams is climbing up the ranks and skipping steps along the way in the “people Grizzly fans hate” club, which is probably a good sign for his career in the long run. And lastly, McGary is a high upside stretch four with a lot to prove after sitting out the past year at Michigan, but opted to go pro facing a year-long NCAA ban for smoking marijuana.
In the post-Harden trade era, the Thunder have operated as a souped up contender/development hub hybrid not dissimilar to the friendly neighborhood Spurs model. The result has yet to catapult them to another trip to the Finals, but what they do have is a sustainable vision for building a successful unit around their star players, which should be a perpetual lock for title contention for at least as long as said stars are intent on sticking around.
Who are they cooking with?
Given the Thunder’s organizational philosophy, there’s a lot of hope for internal development factoring into their offseason strategy, and this summer was no different. Their biggest “splashes” included the acquisition of sharpshooter Anthony Morrow and luring journeyman point guard Sebastian Telfair back stateside from his study abroad with Tianjin Ronggang in China. Morrow should pay off dividends as an offensive decoy, where long-time starting two guard Sefolosha, who vacated his post with the Thunder in free agency, had apparently forgotten how to apply the “3″ portion of the “3 and D” utility that he helped pioneer. Looking at the Telfair signing, the Thunder had made a similar bet on Ryan Gomes as a comeback candidate last year, who wound up getting traded (and subsequently waived) mid-season as part of the Jerryd Bayless and Courtney Lee trade that y’all should be familiar with.
In other words, we can largely look towards the returning cast of characters’ production from last season to buoy our expectations going forward. From a matchup standpoint there’s not much I can add to the discussion of Durant and Westbrook besides note that they’re going to both continue to outplay their respective opponents on just about any given night, but when we’re looking at the Oklahoma City stars, it’s Ibaka who always seems to have an extra gear to spin as he continues to narrow the gap between his tier of stardom and those of his more-heralded teammates. With Westbrook missing substantial time due to injury last season, Ibaka took on a greater role in the offense, jolting his usage rate to 18.0%, and his remarkable efficiency did not skip a beat en route to his career high 15.1 points per game. Not to mention he’s expanding upon his versatility to extend to the corner of the three point line. He’s not lights out from there quite yet, but his career is still plenty young, which is frightening to think about. There aren’t many guys out there that will send your shot into the stands on one end of the floor and spot up from the arc on the very next play.
The other guy primed for major growth, who already has suitors forming a preemptive line at his doorstep as he enters his contract year, is Reggie Jackson. The 2013-14 season was kind to the lightning quick combo guard out of Boston College, who could find himself in the Eric Bledsoe boat rather soon if somebody gives him the keys to his own offense. In the interim, however, there is plenty of opportunity for him to seize the lion’s share of minutes at the shooting guard position alongside Westbrook, in the steed of the departed Sefolosha. Jackson has shown tremendous growth since his rookie season when it comes to shooting the ball, and has displayed no inclinations towards slowing down any time soon.
Finally, we take a peek at the lunchpail guys in Oklahoma City. I’m talkin’ Nick Collison, Adams, Kendrick Perkins — and sadly no longer Hasheem Thabeet. It’s these guys that truly make it a struggle for the Grizzlies to play them. Call him ugly, dirty, or whatever the hell you want, Collison is just Zbo kryptonite, and Adams is a bigger, goofier version waiting in the wings to assume the mantle. On the basis of being an annoying guy to match up with alone, he got Zbo thrown out of the series last year! And for all of his follies, Perkins does do a good job of at least helping to neutralize the Grizzlies’ big men. I assure you, the Grizz aren’t alone in this, though. This rugged bunch is no fun for any paint tandem to wrestle with night-to-night.
All in all, we’re looking at much of the same from the Thunder going forward, which is not necessarily a bad thing. If they can continue to carry the same top-10 offensive and defensive efficiency ratings into 2014-15 and manage to stay healthy at the right time for a change, they just may get to take a whiff of the Larry O’Brien trophy this spring.
How do the good guys stack up?
Photo: Justin Ford / USA Today Sports
The Vibe Behind Enemy Lines
To get some outside flavor on how the Grizz and Thunder match up, we’ve enlisted the help of Brad Graham, author of the upcoming biography “The Backpack Baller,” chronicling the life and rise of Kevin Durant. Brad is the Publisher / Creative Director of BUCKETS Magazine ( http://bucketsmag.bigcartel.
Additionally, you can find Brad on Twitter at @BackpackBaller.
Brad Graham: During last season’s extraordinary, distance lasting Playoff clash, the Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder participated in a record-setting four consecutive overtime games. It’s no secret that Memphis matches up extremely well with OKC — on the court and on the sidelines — and nowhere was this more evident than during their opening round Playoffs rumble… but that’s all ancient history now, right? Not so fast. While they might’ve played chicken in Game’s 2 through 5, it’s what unfolded over the latter stages of their classic series that still stings Griz-heads but remains honey for those living inside Thunderland.
It wasn’t enough that The Oklahoman newspaper kicked the hornets nest, calling out their superstar’s play as decoy and suggesting he was passive on offensive, but Steven — “tin points, sex rebounds” — Adams inadvertently, and eventually, tipped the series in OKC’s favor because he was able to get under Zach Randolph’s skin. The resulting shove (unfortunately) forced Z-Bo to watch the series decider in a tailored suit. Make no mistake, the scent of bad blood from the 2014 Post-season will be in the air for some time. The best part for fans: neither side knows how to take a backwards step.
Because their season prematurely ended, Thunder fans now expect the Griz to be on the hunt for OKC’s scalp… and they’ll get their first chance just one week into the upcoming campaign (when OKC first hosts the Blue Bear’s). Unfortunately, these team’s don’t meet again until the last day of January when it’s the FedExForum’s turn to show their appreciation towards the tourists. Regardless of that (late January) outcome, the loser won’t have to wait long to extract possible revenge because the two meet again just 11 days later, only this time it’ll be OKC’s turn to again set the table.
On April 3, by which point in the season both franchises will be looking to stay ahead of one another (while fending off all outside challengers), the Griz and Thunder do battle for the fourth and final time. So while their decade-long chess match continues, this underrated rivalry just keep growing more intense. Like a motorist who continually slows you down on the freeway, OKC is constantly blocking Memphis’ ascension. Every time Memphis is about to make their move, OKC switches lanes too.
Cover of Brad’s upcoming BUCKETS Mag (click for pre-order link)
As for the specifics, Memphis interestingly exposed a flaw (toughness) in Kevin Durant’s armour when their First Round series shuffled over to Tennessee. The Easy Money Sniper struggled mightily in Game 4, netting just 15 points on five of 21 shooting (thanks to Tony Allen’s tireless and tight defence) and if not for Reggie Jackson’s career-best showing, OKC wouldn’t have evened the series up at two games apiece — and then who knows what might’ve transpired.
In 2013-14, K.D — the game’s premier offensive talent — averaged 31-6-5 in the Thunder’s four regular season meetings with the Griz, shooting 52-30-85 splits along the way. Now Tayshaun Prince, Tony Allen and Courtney Lee (possibly Vince Carter too) will be tasked with the unenviable job of trying to keep K.D off the foul line. And if the defensive trio can force him to fire away from deep, recent history suggests they’ll put Memphis in a strong position to win because Durant shot just 20% from distance inside the FedEx forum in 2013-14. Maybe it was the rims, the lighting or the way the Griz can play him straight up with multiple defenders but nothing came easy for K.D. More so, his averages were down to 28-5-4 on 53-20-86 shooting splits in the Volunteer State — and it’s worth noting, that long distance shooting percentage (.200) was his third worst in 2013-14, a figure that doubled as his lowest accuracy rate for out-of-state venues he visited more than once.
Still, any edge the interior Bears (Gasol-Randolph) has over the Thunder pairing (Ibaka-Perkins) is easily neutralised by Kevin Durant’s distinct advantage over, well, everybody else, especially if his shot is falling. If that happens, pray Scott Brooks asks K.D to defend the low post; Russell Westbrook goes into Single’s Tennis mode; and the team’s trainer injects Reggie Jackson with his favorite erratic confidence serum.
As for unexpected difference makers, adding Sebastian Telfair and Anthony Morrow will undoubtably bolster the Thunder’s outside attack but it’s not like the Griz don’t have a stable and capable backcourt of their own — Mike Conley continues to be under appreciated and against the Thunder, he’s pesky enough to swing any single contest. Still, the Thunder upgrade (if you can call replacing Thabo Sefolosha and Derek Fisher with Morrow and Telfair an upgrade) will mean the Thunder can better space the floor, which’ll force the Griz to guard K.D and Russ one on one (not good) or double / rotate with whoever is being asked to stand near Kendrick Perkins (the likely option in the half court) leaving him alone to build a new brick house (or at least that’s the hope).
So long as the Grizzlies secure a Playoff slot higher than seventh, they probably won’t see the Thunder until the Post-season’s second round, or, possibly, hopefully, these two will finally clash for the Conference banner. The Griz vs. Thunder duel isn’t just an extended coin-flip between Conference supremos, it’s a clash of viable contenders who know each other so intimately that every inch, every possession, every lapse in judgement matters — and that’s the key here, as it was last season: the first one to swerve loses.
The Vibe at 3 Shades of Blue
Jonathan May: I had to volunteer for this one, right? What can I say: I have history with Thunder fans (who, by the way, are louder on Twitter than in the ‘Peake! I kid, I kid). They are really a fun group, and I enjoy talking with *most* of them. The rivalry that has developed between the two franchises and fan bases over the last four years is one of my favorite parts of life in the NBA, and it was only intensified by the 7-game classic first round series last season. But this is a new season and we will find new reasons to begrudgingly respect and not-so-begrudgingly hate the Thunder.
I think the Thunder had a solid, if not particularly high-profile summer. They moved off of Thabo Sefolosha, which has to be a relief for Thunder fans. It will be interesting to see how the handle the rotation at the 2 now, and how much more we see Westbrook and Reggie Jackson on the floor together. While that lineup makes me salivate from a League Pass standpoint, it also makes me uneasy as an opposing fan. If it works, an offense that was already capable of reaching ridiculous heights will find a whole new gear. If it doesn’t, they’re going to have to figure out what to do with the shooting guard minutes. Obviously the continued development of Jeremy Lamb and the integration of Anthony Morrow will go a long way in deciding this issue as well. Basketball fan JMay loves the Morrow signing for OKC. Grizzlies fan JMay hates it. At around $3m per season, adding a career 42% three point shooter was a steal, and playing with KD and Westbrook should only lead to more open looks. Morrow’s ability to find other ways to contribute on offense and willingness to carry his weight on defense will be something to watch over the first few months of the season.
Gif via BusinessInsider.com
When it comes to matching up with the Grizzlies, the conversation still starts with the question that has dogged OKC throughout this rivalry: what mix of bigs can most effectively neutralize the Grizzlies’ schematic advantage in the paint? The sample size on Perkins is large enough at this point to say, without hesitation, that he’s not the answer. Steven Adams went all Steven Adams and baited ZBo into throwing a “punch” in Game 6 (you might have heard about this) but the effectiveness of his actual basketball skill(s) is still unclear. Of course, Serge Ibaka has a nice skill set for a 6’10 player and has had strong moments against the Grizzlies. That said, his impact arises primarily from his ability to block/alter shots, and offensively playing in space that Grizzlies bigs don’t like to defend. Mitch McGary was a solid addition in the 2014 draft, but I wouldn’t expect an instant impact on this veteran-laden team. Blah blah blah, Nick Collison, blah blah. The point is that much as the Grizzlies rely on a committee of clearly lesser players to contain Durant, the Thunder will continue to rely on a cast of lesser players to take Memphis out of its outside-in comfort zone.
Despite the fact that OKC has the two biggest “stars” in the match up, and a truly transcendent, generational talent in Durant, the teams compliment each other in a way that makes it easy to understand why the teams have basically split games in their “modern era” (2010-present), including an 8-7 Thunder advantage in regular season match ups, and a 10-9 Grizzlies advantage in 3 playoff series (2 of which were won by OKC, I know). I expect more of the same this year, as the teams likely split their 4 match ups in the regular season (each winning once at home and once on the road, if you were curious). Given my expectations for the two teams, it is unlikely that they meet in the playoffs before the Western Conference Finals, but boy will that make for some good television!
Don’t be shy, Thunder fans! You can always find me right here, ready for your hate.
When Do They Square Off?
11/7/14 – Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK – 7:00 PM CST *ESPN*
1/31/15 — FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN — 7:00 PM CST
2/11/15 – Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK – 7:00 PM CST
4/3/15 — FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN — 7:00 PM CST
What Do Y’all Think?
Cast your vote below and give a shout on Twitter @StevieDanziger to discuss more on the matchup!